GIS response to the European Parliament Think Tank briefing (“Evidence for policy-making: Foresight-based scientific advice”).

GIS response to the European Parliament Think Tank briefing (“Evidence for policy-making: Foresight-based scientific advice”).

Evidence, Trust, and the Next Step in Foresight

By Gangary Intelligence Systems (GIS)

In March 2021, the European Parliament’s Think Tank released a briefing on Evidence for policy-making: Foresight-based scientific advice. Its central message was clear: embedding evidence-based foresight in the policy cycle is essential for trust, resilience, and effective crisis response. Covid-19 proved this urgency—where evidence shifted by the hour, and policymakers had to balance expert advice, feasibility, and public acceptance.

This briefing emphasizes four practices for trustworthy foresight: seeing the broader picture, exploring biases, using multiple perspectives, and stress-testing policy options. It frames foresight as a way to secure legitimacy in moments of uncertainty.

Beyond Evidence Alone

While we agree that evidence is the cornerstone of trustworthy foresight, GIS argues it is not sufficient on its own. Crises do not unfold only through data; they unfold through perception, culture, and symbolism. Evidence secures trust in the process, but meaning secures legitimacy in the outcome.

During the pandemic, policies succeeded or failed not only on epidemiological evidence but on how societies interpreted, resisted, or embraced them. Symbolic signals—masks as identity markers, vaccines as symbols of freedom or control—shaped public legitimacy more than charts and models.

The Case for Symbolic Foresight

Evidence foresight (EU): Builds trust through credible, data-driven advice.

Speculative foresight (Imperial): Builds resilience by preparing for outlier futures.

Symbolic foresight (GIS): Builds legitimacy by tracking meaning, archetypes, and cultural drift that determine how futures are accepted or resisted.

This is not an alternative to evidence, but its extension. Symbolic foresight integrates evidence and speculation with a third dimension: resonance. It asks not only “What will happen?” but “What will it mean, and how will it be received?”

Toward Trust + Legitimacy

For policymakers, the implication is direct:

Evidence secures trust.

Speculation secures preparedness.

Symbolism secures legitimacy.

A foresight ecosystem that ignores any of the three risks partial blindness. By 2030, GIS anticipates foresight will evolve into sovereign foresight systems: evidence-based, speculation-enabled, and symbolically aware.

Call to Policymakers

The European Parliament briefing rightly anchors foresight in evidence. Our call is to take the next step: adopt symbolic foresight as a complement to evidence-based routines. Only then can policy not just forecast the future, but forecast legitimacy itself.

Forecasting events is no longer enough. The task is to forecast meaning.