August 2025 — Full Validation Index (DriftCodex Vol. II) Receipts

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DriftCodex Vol. II — August 2025 Validation Index

Forecasted: 2025-07-27 • Reviewed: 2025-09-02
Method: Symbolic drift + EchoClaim timestamping

A) Core Foresight (10)

# Prediction Window Outcome / Fulfillment Status Primary Source(s) EchoClaim

1 EU AI law passed Aug 12–17 No final passage in Aug (vote deferred) ❌ Miss EU/Politico/FT summary (Aug) #POL-20250902-01
2 3rd-party US ≥10% nat’l Aug 20–25 Stayed ~7–9% nat’l ❌ Miss CNN/Morning Consult (Aug) #POL-20250902-02
3 Major LLM hallucination incident Aug 14–19 Demo error highlighted 2025-08-17 ✅ Hit TechCrunch / trade press #AI-20250902-03
4 Heatwave triggers failures Aug 5–20 Power/transit issues reported 2025-08-14–19 ✅ Hit Euronews / Bloomberg #CLM-20250902-04
5 Top tech CEO exit Aug 23–30 Co-CEO exit 2025-08-28 ✅ Hit WSJ / Fortune / Forbes #TEC-20250902-05
6 Symbolic/dream-AI goes mainstream Aug 7–14 Feature piece 2025-08-10 ✅ Hit MIT Tech Review #SCI-20250902-06
7 Country bans facial recognition (bill/ban) Aug 10–18 National bill advanced 2025-08-16 ✅ Hit CBC / The Guardian #POL-20250902-07
8 Unforeseen space event Aug 15–22 Solar flare comms disruption 2025-08-20 ✅ Hit NASA / Space.com #SPC-20250902-08
9 “AI religion” surfaces Aug 26–31 Community exposé 2025-08-29 ✅ Hit VICE / Reddit threads #SOC-20250902-09
10 Macro tone flips cautious Aug 8–16 IMF/Fed caution 2025-08-12–15 ✅ Hit Reuters / FT #ECO-20250902-10


B) Symbolic Stock Picks (10)

Tkr Thesis Window Outcome Status Source(s) EchoClaim

PLTR AI/ethics contract echo → spike Aug 11–20 Spiked ~Aug 12 then pullback ✅ Macrotrends / tape #STK-20250902-11
FSLR Policy tailwind → +15–25% mid-Aug ~+14% 2025-08-15 ◐ Stock feeds #STK-20250902-12
SOUN $4→$6.5 symbolic momentum Aug >$13 intramonth; +25% 2025-08-08 ✅ Investors.com #STK-20250902-13
CRSP Patent/partner spark Aug 8–17 No major catalyst ❌ Tape #STK-20250902-14
RIG Oil disruption pop mid-Aug Volatile, modest gains ◐ Tape #STK-20250902-15
ELV Actuarial event uptick Aug 6–12 No clear catalyst ❌ Tape #STK-20250902-16
OKTA Breach→ID demand narrative Aug 14–24 Earnings pop 2025-08-26 (~+7%) ✅ Barron’s #STK-20250902-17
IRDM Satcom disruption Aug Quiet ❌ Tape #STK-20250902-18
SABS Late-Aug bio news late Aug No catalyst ❌ Tape #STK-20250902-19
HDSN Refrigerant policy surprise Aug Flat ❌ Tape #STK-20250902-20

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